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FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Rīgas FS — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rīgas FS
Rīgas FS
1/18/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportima Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius45%
×Draw23%
Rīgas FS32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.76
Rīgas FS
1.44

FK Zalgiris Vilnius creates 22% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.14
Rīgas FS
1.75

allows per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.14
Rīgas FS
1.38

finishing

FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par
Rīgas FS+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Zalgiris Vilnius ↓

Rīgas FS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

FK Zalgiris Vilnius or draw
68%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius or Rīgas FS
77%
Draw or Rīgas FS
55%

Winning margin

FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+
24%
Rīgas FS wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals
83%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals
52%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals
26%
Rīgas FS 1+ goals
76%
Rīgas FS 2+ goals
42%
Rīgas FS 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)
59%
Rīgas FS (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Rīgas FS away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 2.14 + Rīgas FS defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.76

Rīgas FS attack 1.75 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more
45%
level
23%
Rīgas FS scores more
32%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FK Zalgiris Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Rīgas FS

Rīgas FS beat FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 18, 2025.

The match was played at Sportima Arena in Vilnius.