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FK Trayal vs Bezanija — Prva Liga 2018

FK Trayal
FK Trayal
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Bezanija
Bezanija
11/12/2018Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 16Stadion Parunovac (Krusevac)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FK Trayal45%
×Draw27%
Bezanija28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Trayal
1.39
Bezanija
1.02

FK Trayal creates 36% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 19 away

creates per match

FK Trayal
1.19
Bezanija
1.00

allows per match

FK Trayal
1.04
Bezanija
1.58

finishing

FK Trayal+0.00on par
Bezanija+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Trayal ↓

Bezanija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FK Trayal or draw
72%
FK Trayal or Bezanija
73%
Draw or Bezanija
55%

Winning margin

FK Trayal wins by 2+
22%
Bezanija wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FK Trayal 1+ goals
75%
FK Trayal 2+ goals
40%
FK Trayal 3+ goals
16%
Bezanija 1+ goals
64%
Bezanija 2+ goals
27%
Bezanija 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

FK Trayal (draw refunded)
62%
Bezanija (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Trayal at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.04 · 106 matches

Bezanija away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Trayal attack 1.19 + Bezanija defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.39

Bezanija attack 1.00 + FK Trayal defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FK Trayal scores more
45%
level
27%
Bezanija scores more
28%

FK Trayal at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FK Trayal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Trayal vs Bezanija

Bezanija beat FK Trayal 2-1 in Prva Liga on November 12, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Parunovac (Krusevac).