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Bezanija vs FK Trayal — Prva Liga 2018

Bezanija
Bezanija
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FK Trayal
FK Trayal
8/12/2018Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 1Stadion kraj Bežanijske crkve (Beograd)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Bezanija50%
×Draw26%
FK Trayal24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bezanija
1.50
FK Trayal
0.94

Bezanija creates 60% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 108 away

creates per match

Bezanija
1.61
FK Trayal
0.77

allows per match

Bezanija
1.11
FK Trayal
1.39

finishing

Bezanija+0.00on par
FK Trayal+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bezanija ↓

FK Trayal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bezanija or draw
76%
Bezanija or FK Trayal
74%
Draw or FK Trayal
50%

Winning margin

Bezanija wins by 2+
25%
FK Trayal wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bezanija 1+ goals
78%
Bezanija 2+ goals
44%
Bezanija 3+ goals
19%
FK Trayal 1+ goals
61%
FK Trayal 2+ goals
24%
FK Trayal 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bezanija (draw refunded)
68%
FK Trayal (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bezanija at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

FK Trayal away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.39 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bezanija attack 1.61 + FK Trayal defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.50

FK Trayal attack 0.77 + Bezanija defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bezanija scores more
50%
level
26%
FK Trayal scores more
24%

Bezanija at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bezanija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Bezanija 2–0 FK Trayal

Bezanija beat FK Trayal 2-0 in Prva Liga on August 12, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion kraj Bežanijske crkve (Beograd).