FK Tobol Kostanay 3–0 Aktobe: Result & Stats

FK Tobol Kostanay

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Aktobe

Rui Costa 86'

A. El Messaoudi 65'

I. Chesnokov 32'

9/22/2024

Premier League · Round 21Ortalyq stadıon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

FK Tobol Kostanay53%

×Draw24%

Aktobe23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Tobol KostanayExpected goals in this matchAktobe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.02

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.68

Aktobe

1.02

FK Tobol Kostanay creates 65% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 22 away

1.86

creates per match

1.14

0.90

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.86

Aktobe

1.14

allows per match

FK Tobol Kostanay

0.90

Aktobe

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Tobol Kostanay+0.00on par

Aktobe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Tobol Kostanay ↓

Aktobe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

FK Tobol Kostanay or draw

77%

FK Tobol Kostanay or Aktobe

76%

Draw or Aktobe

47%

Winning margin

FK Tobol Kostanay wins by 2+

29%

Aktobe wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

FK Tobol Kostanay 1+ goals

81%

FK Tobol Kostanay 2+ goals

50%

FK Tobol Kostanay 3+ goals

24%

Aktobe 1+ goals

64%

Aktobe 2+ goals

27%

Aktobe 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

FK Tobol Kostanay (draw refunded)

70%

Aktobe (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Tobol Kostanay at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.90 · 29 matches

Aktobe away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Tobol Kostanay attack 1.86 + Aktobe defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.68

Aktobe attack 1.14 + FK Tobol Kostanay defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

FK Tobol Kostanay scores more

53%

level

24%

Aktobe scores more

23%

FK Tobol Kostanay at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FK Tobol Kostanay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

32'

38'

43'

43'

46'

46'

L. Strumia← D. Bessmertny

51'

Tsotne Mosiashvili

53'

Albert Gabaraev

65'

A. El Messaoudi

68'

D. Romero← A. Doumbouya

69'

Rui Costa← D. Henen

79'

Bagdat Kairov

79'

A. Zuev← A. El Messaoudi

79'

E. Tapalov← I. Ivanović

86'

Rui Costa

88'

D. Berdibek← A. Tanzharikov

89'

Pedro Eugénio← I. Chesnokov

89'

R. Tsonev← T. Mosiashvili

FK4-2-3-1

Aktobe4-2-3-1

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Chesnokov

⚽

▼

Messaoudi

▼

Ivanović

▼

Henen

Manager: N. Zhumaskaliev

69'▲Rui Costa←▼D. Henen

79'▲A. Zuev←▼A. El Messaoudi

79'▲E. Tapalov←▼I. Ivanović

89'▲Pedro Eugénio←▼I. Chesnokov

89'▲R. Tsonev←▼T. Mosiashvili

FK Tobol Kostanay substitutes

CostaZuevTapalovEugénioTsonevGalymMukhinBozhkoMelikhovZhumashev

Manager: I. Leonov

46'▲I. Umaev←▼F. Góndola

46'▲L. Strumia←▼D. Bessmertny

68'▲D. Romero←▼A. Doumbouya

88'▲D. Berdibek←▼A. Tanzharikov

Aktobe substitutes

UmaevStrumiaRomeroBerdibekKenesovTrofimetsCevallosBarać

Premier League: FK Tobol Kostanay 3–0 Aktobe

FK Tobol Kostanay beat Aktobe 3-0 in Premier League on September 22, 2024.

Goals: I. Chesnokov (32'), A. El Messaoudi (65'), Rui Costa (86').

The match was played at Ortalyq stadıon in Kostanay.

FK Tobol Kostanay vs Aktobe — Premier League 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Premier League: FK Tobol Kostanay 3–0 Aktobe