Aktobe 4–1 FK Tobol Kostanay: Result & Stats

Aktobe

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

FK Tobol Kostanay

I. Ordets 74'

T. Dosmagambetov 68'

A. Zeljkovic 46'

D. Sosah 24'

Z. Zhumashev 72'

3/7/2026

Premier League · Round 1Turkestan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Aktobe48%

×Draw27%

FK Tobol Kostanay25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AktobeExpected goals in this matchFK Tobol Kostanay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.94

Aktobe

1.43

FK Tobol Kostanay

0.94

Aktobe creates 52% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 26 away

1.58

creates per match

1.04

0.83

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Aktobe

1.58

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.04

allows per match

Aktobe

0.83

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aktobe+0.00on par

FK Tobol Kostanay+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aktobe ↓

FK Tobol Kostanay →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Aktobe or draw

75%

Aktobe or FK Tobol Kostanay

73%

Draw or FK Tobol Kostanay

52%

Winning margin

Aktobe wins by 2+

24%

FK Tobol Kostanay wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Aktobe 1+ goals

76%

Aktobe 2+ goals

42%

Aktobe 3+ goals

17%

FK Tobol Kostanay 1+ goals

61%

FK Tobol Kostanay 2+ goals

24%

FK Tobol Kostanay 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Aktobe (draw refunded)

66%

FK Tobol Kostanay (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aktobe at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.83 · 24 matches

FK Tobol Kostanay away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aktobe attack 1.58 + FK Tobol Kostanay defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.43

FK Tobol Kostanay attack 1.04 + Aktobe defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Aktobe scores more

48%

level

27%

FK Tobol Kostanay scores more

25%

Aktobe at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Aktobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

D. Sosah↳ A. Shushenachev

39'

M. Myakish

46'

A. Zeljkovic↳ D. Sosah

52'

N. Korzun← G. Zhukov

62'

Z. Zhumashev← D. Marat

63'

A. Zuev← L. Guerra

63'

U. Milovanovic← R. Hebaj

63'

A. Cisse← N. Zhagorov

68'

T. Dosmagambetov

71'

E. Seydakhmet← A. Zeljkovic

71'

Nani← D. Sosah

72'

Z. Zhumashev↳ A. Zuev

74'

I. Ordets↳ Nani

75'

E. Seydakhmet

80'

A. Baydavletov← P. Alvarez

80'

M. Kikbaev← A. Tanzharikov

83'

D. Usenov← A. Tagybergen

Aktobe4-2-3-1

FK3-4-3

11

▼

Marat

99

▼

Hebaj

30

▼

Guerra

3

Asrankulo

6

Myakish

8

▼

Tagyberge

21

▼

22

5

4

1

16

27

⚽

Dosmagamb

23

Erlanov

18

⚽

Ordets

31

▼

Tanzharik

20

▼

Zhukov

21

▼

Alvarez

10

⚽

▼

Zeljkovic

7

⚽A

▼

Sosah

12

Topalov

11

A

Shushenac

Manager: Nikolay Kostov

52'▲N. Korzun←▼G. Zhukov

71'▲E. Seydakhmet←▼A. Zeljkovic

71'▲Nani←▼D. Sosah

80'▲A. Baydavletov←▼P. Alvarez

80'▲M. Kikbaev←▼A. Tanzharikov

Aktobe substitutes

1Trofimets42Baydavletov5Kairov22Seydakhmet30Korzun29Kikbaev4Kusyapov52Kusainov19Laturnus14Pibe17Nani80Kenesov

Manager: Nurbol Zhumaskaliyev

62'▲Z. Zhumashev←▼D. Marat

63'▲A. Zuev←▼L. Guerra

63'▲U. Milovanovic←▼R. Hebaj

63'▲A. Cisse←▼N. Zhagorov

83'▲D. Usenov←▼A. Tagybergen

FK Tobol Kostanay substitutes

88Kalmyrza19Zhumat29Usenov34Bakhytkiriev33Pivovarov15Vukcevic7Zhumashev17Zuev18Milovanovic44Ustimenko35Melikhov10Galym26Glushchenkov13Cisse14Talal