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FK Tobol Kostanay vs Aktobe — Cup 2019

FK Tobol Kostanay
FK Tobol Kostanay
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Aktobe
Aktobe
7/16/2022CupCup · Group Stage - 2Ortalıq Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

FK Tobol Kostanay44%
×Draw25%
Aktobe31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Tobol Kostanay
1.55
Aktobe
1.25

FK Tobol Kostanay creates 24% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 10 away

creates per match

FK Tobol Kostanay
1.60
Aktobe
1.30

allows per match

FK Tobol Kostanay
1.20
Aktobe
1.50

finishing

FK Tobol Kostanay+0.00on par
Aktobe+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Tobol Kostanay ↓

Aktobe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FK Tobol Kostanay or draw
69%
FK Tobol Kostanay or Aktobe
75%
Draw or Aktobe
56%

Winning margin

FK Tobol Kostanay wins by 2+
22%
Aktobe wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FK Tobol Kostanay 1+ goals
79%
FK Tobol Kostanay 2+ goals
46%
FK Tobol Kostanay 3+ goals
20%
Aktobe 1+ goals
71%
Aktobe 2+ goals
36%
Aktobe 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FK Tobol Kostanay (draw refunded)
59%
Aktobe (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Tobol Kostanay at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Aktobe away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Tobol Kostanay attack 1.60 + Aktobe defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.55

Aktobe attack 1.30 + FK Tobol Kostanay defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FK Tobol Kostanay scores more
44%
level
25%
Aktobe scores more
31%

FK Tobol Kostanay at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FK Tobol Kostanay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Tobol Kostanay vs Aktobe

FK Tobol Kostanay beat Aktobe 2-1 in Cup on July 16, 2022.

The match was played at Ortalıq Stadion in Kostanay.