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FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV vs Radnicki 1923 — Super Liga 2026

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Radnicki 1923
Radnicki 1923
8/10/2024Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 4Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV40%
×Draw26%
Radnicki 192334%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.42
Radnicki 1923
1.29

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV creates 10% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 94 away

creates per match

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.32
Radnicki 1923
1.15

allows per match

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.43
Radnicki 1923
1.52

finishing

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV+0.00on par
Radnicki 1923+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV ↓

Radnicki 1923 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV or draw
66%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV or Radnicki 1923
74%
Draw or Radnicki 1923
60%

Winning margin

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV wins by 2+
19%
Radnicki 1923 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1+ goals
76%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 2+ goals
41%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 3+ goals
17%
Radnicki 1923 1+ goals
72%
Radnicki 1923 2+ goals
37%
Radnicki 1923 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV (draw refunded)
54%
Radnicki 1923 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.43 · 145 matches

Radnicki 1923 away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.52 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV attack 1.32 + Radnicki 1923 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.42

Radnicki 1923 attack 1.15 + FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV scores more
40%
level
26%
Radnicki 1923 scores more
34%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1–0 Radnicki 1923

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV beat Radnicki 1923 1-0 in Super Liga on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Senta.