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FK Spartak Tambov vs Dinamo Vladivostok — Second League - Group 3 2020

FK Spartak Tambov
FK Spartak Tambov
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dinamo Vladivostok
Dinamo Vladivostok
9/8/2024Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 22Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

FK Spartak Tambov38%
×Draw27%
Dinamo Vladivostok35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Spartak Tambov
1.31
Dinamo Vladivostok
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 55 away

creates per match

FK Spartak Tambov
1.47
Dinamo Vladivostok
1.45

allows per match

FK Spartak Tambov
1.03
Dinamo Vladivostok
1.16

finishing

FK Spartak Tambov+0.00on par
Dinamo Vladivostok+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Spartak Tambov ↓

Dinamo Vladivostok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FK Spartak Tambov or draw
65%
FK Spartak Tambov or Dinamo Vladivostok
73%
Draw or Dinamo Vladivostok
62%

Winning margin

FK Spartak Tambov wins by 2+
17%
Dinamo Vladivostok wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FK Spartak Tambov 1+ goals
73%
FK Spartak Tambov 2+ goals
38%
FK Spartak Tambov 3+ goals
14%
Dinamo Vladivostok 1+ goals
71%
Dinamo Vladivostok 2+ goals
35%
Dinamo Vladivostok 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FK Spartak Tambov (draw refunded)
52%
Dinamo Vladivostok (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Spartak Tambov at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Dinamo Vladivostok away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.16 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Spartak Tambov attack 1.47 + Dinamo Vladivostok defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.31

Dinamo Vladivostok attack 1.45 + FK Spartak Tambov defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FK Spartak Tambov scores more
38%
level
27%
Dinamo Vladivostok scores more
35%

FK Spartak Tambov at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FK Spartak Tambov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: FK Spartak Tambov 0–1 Dinamo Vladivostok

Dinamo Vladivostok beat FK Spartak Tambov 1-0 in Second League - Group 3 on September 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Tambov.