Dinamo Vladivostok 1–0 FK Spartak Tambov

Dinamo Vladivostok

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FK Spartak Tambov

5/26/2024

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 8Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Dinamo Vladivostok42%

×Draw27%

FK Spartak Tambov31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo VladivostokExpected goals in this matchFK Spartak Tambov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.13

Dinamo Vladivostok

1.37

FK Spartak Tambov

1.13

Dinamo Vladivostok creates 21% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 63 away

1.61

creates per match

1.41

0.84

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Dinamo Vladivostok

1.61

FK Spartak Tambov

1.41

allows per match

Dinamo Vladivostok

0.84

FK Spartak Tambov

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Vladivostok+0.00on par

FK Spartak Tambov+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vladivostok ↓

FK Spartak Tambov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Dinamo Vladivostok or draw

69%

Dinamo Vladivostok or FK Spartak Tambov

73%

Draw or FK Spartak Tambov

58%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vladivostok wins by 2+

20%

FK Spartak Tambov wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dinamo Vladivostok 1+ goals

75%

Dinamo Vladivostok 2+ goals

40%

Dinamo Vladivostok 3+ goals

16%

FK Spartak Tambov 1+ goals

68%

FK Spartak Tambov 2+ goals

31%

FK Spartak Tambov 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vladivostok (draw refunded)

58%

FK Spartak Tambov (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vladivostok at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.84 · 56 matches

FK Spartak Tambov away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vladivostok attack 1.61 + FK Spartak Tambov defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.37

FK Spartak Tambov attack 1.41 + Dinamo Vladivostok defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dinamo Vladivostok scores more

42%

level

27%

FK Spartak Tambov scores more

31%

Dinamo Vladivostok at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dinamo Vladivostok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff