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FK Sokol Saratov vs FK Neftekhimik — First League 2018

FK Sokol Saratov
FK Sokol Saratov
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
FK Neftekhimik
FK Neftekhimik
3/9/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 23Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

FK Sokol Saratov30%
×Draw30%
FK Neftekhimik40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Sokol Saratov
0.93
FK Neftekhimik
1.14

FK Neftekhimik creates 23% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 123 away

creates per match

FK Sokol Saratov
0.67
FK Neftekhimik
1.12

allows per match

FK Sokol Saratov
1.16
FK Neftekhimik
1.19

finishing

FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par
FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sokol Saratov ↓

FK Neftekhimik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

FK Sokol Saratov or draw
60%
FK Sokol Saratov or FK Neftekhimik
70%
Draw or FK Neftekhimik
70%

Winning margin

FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+
10%
FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals
61%
FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals
24%
FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals
7%
FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals
68%
FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals
32%
FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)
42%
FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sokol Saratov at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.16 · 51 matches

FK Neftekhimik away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.19 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sokol Saratov attack 0.67 + FK Neftekhimik defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.93

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.12 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FK Sokol Saratov scores more
30%
level
30%
FK Neftekhimik scores more
40%

FK Neftekhimik at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FK Neftekhimik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Sokol Saratov vs FK Neftekhimik

FK Neftekhimik beat FK Sokol Saratov 3-1 in First League on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Saratov.