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FK Neftekhimik vs FK Sokol Saratov — First League 2018

FK Neftekhimik
FK Neftekhimik
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FK Sokol Saratov
FK Sokol Saratov
10/27/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 16Stadion Neftekhimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

FK Neftekhimik51%
×Draw27%
FK Sokol Saratov22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Neftekhimik
1.44
FK Sokol Saratov
0.85

FK Neftekhimik creates 69% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 51 away

creates per match

FK Neftekhimik
1.33
FK Sokol Saratov
0.76

allows per match

FK Neftekhimik
0.95
FK Sokol Saratov
1.55

finishing

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par
FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Neftekhimik ↓

FK Sokol Saratov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FK Neftekhimik or draw
78%
FK Neftekhimik or FK Sokol Saratov
73%
Draw or FK Sokol Saratov
49%

Winning margin

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+
25%
FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals
76%
FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals
42%
FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals
18%
FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals
57%
FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals
21%
FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)
70%
FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Neftekhimik at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.95 · 122 matches

FK Sokol Saratov away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.55 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.33 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.44

FK Sokol Saratov attack 0.76 + FK Neftekhimik defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FK Neftekhimik scores more
51%
level
27%
FK Sokol Saratov scores more
22%

FK Neftekhimik at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FK Neftekhimik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: FK Neftekhimik 0–0 FK Sokol Saratov

FK Neftekhimik and FK Sokol Saratov drew 0-0 in First League on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Neftekhimik in Nizhnekamsk.