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FK Sokol Saratov vs FC Sochi — First League 2018

FK Sokol Saratov
FK Sokol Saratov
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC Sochi
FC Sochi
V. Samko 67'
Marcelo Alves 62'
9/21/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 11Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

FK Sokol Saratov25%
×Draw28%
FC Sochi46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Sokol Saratov
0.88
FC Sochi
1.30

FC Sochi creates 48% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 38 away

creates per match

FK Sokol Saratov
0.67
FC Sochi
1.45

allows per match

FK Sokol Saratov
1.16
FC Sochi
1.08

finishing

FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par
FC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sokol Saratov ↓

FC Sochi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

FK Sokol Saratov or draw
54%
FK Sokol Saratov or FC Sochi
72%
Draw or FC Sochi
75%

Winning margin

FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+
8%
FC Sochi wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals
59%
FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals
22%
FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals
6%
FC Sochi 1+ goals
73%
FC Sochi 2+ goals
37%
FC Sochi 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)
35%
FC Sochi (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sokol Saratov at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.16 · 51 matches

FC Sochi away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sokol Saratov attack 0.67 + FC Sochi defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.88

FC Sochi attack 1.45 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FK Sokol Saratov scores more
25%
level
28%
FC Sochi scores more
46%

FC Sochi at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
Artem Molodtsov
57'
P. Maslov← K. Suslov
57'
N. Burmistrov← K. Nikitin
62'
Marcelo Alves
65'
N. Kaplenko← A. Molodtsov
67'
V. Samko
77'
V. Shpitalny← D. Sasin
77'
E. Karpitskiy← A. Maksimenko
77'
V. Litvinov← I. Saavedra
77'
R. Magal← A. Shushenachev
77'
I. Safronov← K. Zaika
79'
Marcelo Alves
86'
Ilya Safronov
89'
S. Saaduev← D. Poluboyarinov
89'
V. Babaev← R. Yuzepchuk
90+3'
Nikita Burmistrov

Statistics

FKFC
Discipline
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1

Match Recap: FK Sokol Saratov vs FC Sochi

FK Sokol Saratov and FC Sochi drew 1-1 in First League on September 21, 2024.

Goals: Marcelo Alves (62'), V. Samko (67').

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Saratov.