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FC Sochi vs FK Sokol Saratov — First League 2018

FC Sochi
FC Sochi
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FK Sokol Saratov
FK Sokol Saratov
3/3/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 22Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

FC Sochi58%
×Draw24%
FK Sokol Saratov18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Sochi
1.70
FK Sokol Saratov
0.81

FC Sochi creates 110% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 51 away

creates per match

FC Sochi
1.84
FK Sokol Saratov
0.76

allows per match

FC Sochi
0.86
FK Sokol Saratov
1.55

finishing

FC Sochi+0.00on par
FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Sochi ↓

FK Sokol Saratov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FC Sochi or draw
82%
FC Sochi or FK Sokol Saratov
76%
Draw or FK Sokol Saratov
42%

Winning margin

FC Sochi wins by 2+
33%
FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

FC Sochi 1+ goals
82%
FC Sochi 2+ goals
51%
FC Sochi 3+ goals
24%
FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals
56%
FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals
19%
FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FC Sochi (draw refunded)
77%
FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Sochi at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.86 · 37 matches

FK Sokol Saratov away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.55 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Sochi attack 1.84 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.70

FK Sokol Saratov attack 0.76 + FC Sochi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

FC Sochi scores more
58%
level
24%
FK Sokol Saratov scores more
18%

FC Sochi at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "FC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
Dmitriy Begun
65'
I. Porokhov← D. Sasin
65'
R. Yuzepchuk← B. Gurtsiev
67'
V. Pisarskiy← K. Nikitin
67'
A. Shushenachev← P. Meleshin
74'
Giorgi Kantaria
75'
D. Nduka← G. Kantaria
76'
L. Stojsavljević← S. Terekhov
76'
R. Pasevich← K. Zaika
90+2'
V. Babaev← D. Poluboyarinov
90+2'
S. Vukić← E. Karpitskiy

Statistics

FCFK
Discipline
0Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: FC Sochi vs FK Sokol Saratov

FC Sochi and FK Sokol Saratov drew 0-0 in First League on March 3, 2025.

The match was played at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht in Sochi.