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FK Sokol Saratov vs Fakel — First League 2018

FK Sokol Saratov
FK Sokol Saratov
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Fakel
Fakel
11/16/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 19Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

FK Sokol Saratov31%
×Draw29%
Fakel40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Sokol Saratov
0.99
Fakel
1.18

Fakel creates 19% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 89 away

creates per match

FK Sokol Saratov
0.67
Fakel
1.20

allows per match

FK Sokol Saratov
1.16
Fakel
1.31

finishing

FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par
Fakel+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sokol Saratov ↓

Fakel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

FK Sokol Saratov or draw
60%
FK Sokol Saratov or Fakel
71%
Draw or Fakel
69%

Winning margin

FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+
11%
Fakel wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals
63%
FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals
26%
FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals
8%
Fakel 1+ goals
69%
Fakel 2+ goals
33%
Fakel 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)
43%
Fakel (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sokol Saratov at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.16 · 51 matches

Fakel away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.31 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sokol Saratov attack 0.67 + Fakel defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.99

Fakel attack 1.20 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FK Sokol Saratov scores more
31%
level
29%
Fakel scores more
40%

Fakel at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fakel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: FK Sokol Saratov 0–1 Fakel

Fakel beat FK Sokol Saratov 1-0 in First League on November 16, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Saratov.