Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fakel vs FK Sokol Saratov — First League 2018

Fakel
Fakel
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FK Sokol Saratov
FK Sokol Saratov
8/3/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 3Fakel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Fakel51%
×Draw28%
FK Sokol Saratov21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel
1.35
FK Sokol Saratov
0.74

Fakel creates 82% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 51 away

creates per match

Fakel
1.16
FK Sokol Saratov
0.76

allows per match

Fakel
0.72
FK Sokol Saratov
1.55

finishing

Fakel+0.00on par
FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel ↓

FK Sokol Saratov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Fakel or draw
79%
Fakel or FK Sokol Saratov
72%
Draw or FK Sokol Saratov
49%

Winning margin

Fakel wins by 2+
25%
FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Fakel 1+ goals
74%
Fakel 2+ goals
39%
Fakel 3+ goals
15%
FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals
52%
FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals
17%
FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Fakel (draw refunded)
71%
FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.72 · 90 matches

FK Sokol Saratov away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.55 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel attack 1.16 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.35

FK Sokol Saratov attack 0.76 + Fakel defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Fakel scores more
51%
level
28%
FK Sokol Saratov scores more
21%

Fakel at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Fakel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Fakel 1–0 FK Sokol Saratov

Fakel beat FK Sokol Saratov 1-0 in First League on August 3, 2025.

The match was played at Fakel Stadium in Voronezh.