FK Sokol Saratov 1–0 Dinamo Vladivostok

FK Sokol Saratov

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dinamo Vladivostok

7/28/2022

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 3Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

FK Sokol Saratov45%

×Draw26%

Dinamo Vladivostok29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Sokol SaratovExpected goals in this matchDinamo Vladivostok

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.11

FK Sokol Saratov

1.46

Dinamo Vladivostok

1.11

FK Sokol Saratov creates 32% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 55 away

1.75

creates per match

1.45

0.77

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

FK Sokol Saratov

1.75

Dinamo Vladivostok

1.45

allows per match

FK Sokol Saratov

0.77

Dinamo Vladivostok

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par

Dinamo Vladivostok+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sokol Saratov ↓

Dinamo Vladivostok →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

FK Sokol Saratov or draw

71%

FK Sokol Saratov or Dinamo Vladivostok

74%

Draw or Dinamo Vladivostok

55%

Winning margin

FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+

22%

Dinamo Vladivostok wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals

77%

FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals

43%

FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals

18%

Dinamo Vladivostok 1+ goals

67%

Dinamo Vladivostok 2+ goals

30%

Dinamo Vladivostok 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)

61%

Dinamo Vladivostok (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sokol Saratov at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.77 · 48 matches

Dinamo Vladivostok away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.16 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sokol Saratov attack 1.75 + Dinamo Vladivostok defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.46

Dinamo Vladivostok attack 1.45 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FK Sokol Saratov scores more

45%

level

26%

Dinamo Vladivostok scores more

29%

FK Sokol Saratov at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FK Sokol Saratov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff