Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dinamo Vladivostok vs FK Sokol Saratov — Second League - Group 3 2020

Dinamo Vladivostok
Dinamo Vladivostok
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
FK Sokol Saratov
FK Sokol Saratov
9/2/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 7Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Dinamo Vladivostok37%
×Draw29%
FK Sokol Saratov34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Vladivostok
1.17
FK Sokol Saratov
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 48 away

creates per match

Dinamo Vladivostok
1.61
FK Sokol Saratov
1.38

allows per match

Dinamo Vladivostok
0.84
FK Sokol Saratov
0.73

finishing

Dinamo Vladivostok+0.00on par
FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vladivostok ↓

FK Sokol Saratov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dinamo Vladivostok or draw
66%
Dinamo Vladivostok or FK Sokol Saratov
71%
Draw or FK Sokol Saratov
63%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vladivostok wins by 2+
16%
FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dinamo Vladivostok 1+ goals
69%
Dinamo Vladivostok 2+ goals
33%
Dinamo Vladivostok 3+ goals
11%
FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals
67%
FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals
30%
FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vladivostok (draw refunded)
52%
FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vladivostok at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.84 · 56 matches

FK Sokol Saratov away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.73 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vladivostok attack 1.61 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.17

FK Sokol Saratov attack 1.38 + Dinamo Vladivostok defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dinamo Vladivostok scores more
37%
level
29%
FK Sokol Saratov scores more
34%

Dinamo Vladivostok at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Dinamo Vladivostok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Dinamo Vladivostok 3–2 FK Sokol Saratov

Dinamo Vladivostok beat FK Sokol Saratov 3-2 in Second League - Group 3 on September 2, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Vladivostok.