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FK Sokol Saratov vs Chernomorets — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FK Sokol Saratov
FK Sokol Saratov
CANC
14:30
Chernomorets
Chernomorets
2/13/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Akademii FK Sochi pole № 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

FK Sokol Saratov72%
×Draw17%
Chernomorets11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Sokol Saratov
2.35
Chernomorets
0.78

FK Sokol Saratov creates 201% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

FK Sokol Saratov
2.45
Chernomorets
0.75

allows per match

FK Sokol Saratov
0.82
Chernomorets
2.25

finishing

FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par
Chernomorets+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sokol Saratov ↓

Chernomorets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FK Sokol Saratov or draw
89%
FK Sokol Saratov or Chernomorets
83%
Draw or Chernomorets
28%

Winning margin

FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+
49%
Chernomorets wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals
90%
FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals
68%
FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals
41%
Chernomorets 1+ goals
54%
Chernomorets 2+ goals
18%
Chernomorets 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)
87%
Chernomorets (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sokol Saratov at home — creates 2.45, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Chernomorets away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sokol Saratov attack 2.45 + Chernomorets defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.35

Chernomorets attack 0.75 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

FK Sokol Saratov scores more
72%
level
17%
Chernomorets scores more
11%

FK Sokol Saratov at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "FK Sokol Saratov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FK Sokol Saratov face Chernomorets (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with FK Sokol Saratov hosting Chernomorets. Match starts February 13, 2025. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

FK Sokol Saratov host Chernomorets at Akademii FK Sochi pole № 2.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.