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Chernomorets vs FK Sokol Saratov — First League 2018

Chernomorets
Chernomorets
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FK Sokol Saratov
FK Sokol Saratov
4/26/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 31Centralnyy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Chernomorets48%
×Draw27%
FK Sokol Saratov25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernomorets
1.41
FK Sokol Saratov
0.92

Chernomorets creates 53% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

Chernomorets
1.27
FK Sokol Saratov
0.76

allows per match

Chernomorets
1.08
FK Sokol Saratov
1.55

finishing

Chernomorets+0.00on par
FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets ↓

FK Sokol Saratov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Chernomorets or draw
75%
Chernomorets or FK Sokol Saratov
73%
Draw or FK Sokol Saratov
52%

Winning margin

Chernomorets wins by 2+
24%
FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Chernomorets 1+ goals
76%
Chernomorets 2+ goals
41%
Chernomorets 3+ goals
17%
FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals
60%
FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals
23%
FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets (draw refunded)
66%
FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

FK Sokol Saratov away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.55 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets attack 1.27 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.41

FK Sokol Saratov attack 0.76 + Chernomorets defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Chernomorets scores more
48%
level
27%
FK Sokol Saratov scores more
25%

Chernomorets at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Chernomorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Chernomorets 0–1 FK Sokol Saratov

FK Sokol Saratov beat Chernomorets 1-0 in First League on April 26, 2026.

The match was played at Centralnyy in Novorossiysk.