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FK Sokol Saratov vs Arsenal Tula — First League 2018

FK Sokol Saratov
FK Sokol Saratov
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
10/5/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 13Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

FK Sokol Saratov31%
×Draw31%
Arsenal Tula38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Sokol Saratov
0.91
Arsenal Tula
1.05

Arsenal Tula creates 15% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

creates per match

FK Sokol Saratov
0.67
Arsenal Tula
0.94

allows per match

FK Sokol Saratov
1.16
Arsenal Tula
1.15

finishing

FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par
Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sokol Saratov ↓

Arsenal Tula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

FK Sokol Saratov or draw
62%
FK Sokol Saratov or Arsenal Tula
69%
Draw or Arsenal Tula
69%

Winning margin

FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+
11%
Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals
60%
FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals
23%
FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals
6%
Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
65%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
28%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)
45%
Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sokol Saratov at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.16 · 51 matches

Arsenal Tula away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.15 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sokol Saratov attack 0.67 + Arsenal Tula defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.91

Arsenal Tula attack 0.94 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FK Sokol Saratov scores more
31%
level
31%
Arsenal Tula scores more
38%

Arsenal Tula at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Arsenal Tula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: FK Sokol Saratov 1–1 Arsenal Tula

FK Sokol Saratov and Arsenal Tula drew 1-1 in First League on October 5, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Saratov.