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Arsenal Tula vs FK Sokol Saratov — Cup 2019

Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tulaadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FK Sokol Saratov
FK Sokol Saratov
10/15/2025CupCup · Regions Path - Semi-finalsStadion Arsenal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Arsenal Tula30%
×Draw27%
FK Sokol Saratov42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Tula
1.08
FK Sokol Saratov
1.33

FK Sokol Saratov creates 23% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Arsenal Tula
1.00
FK Sokol Saratov
1.17

allows per match

Arsenal Tula
1.50
FK Sokol Saratov
1.17

finishing

Arsenal Tula+0.00on par
FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula ↓

FK Sokol Saratov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula or draw
58%
Arsenal Tula or FK Sokol Saratov
73%
Draw or FK Sokol Saratov
70%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
12%
FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
66%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
29%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
10%
FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals
74%
FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals
38%
FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
42%
FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

FK Sokol Saratov away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula attack 1.00 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

FK Sokol Saratov attack 1.17 + Arsenal Tula defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Arsenal Tula scores more
30%
level
27%
FK Sokol Saratov scores more
42%

FK Sokol Saratov at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FK Sokol Saratov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arsenal Tula vs FK Sokol Saratov

Arsenal Tula beat FK Sokol Saratov 1-0 in Cup on October 15, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Arsenal in Tula.