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FK Sokol Saratov vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz — First League 2018

FK Sokol Saratov
FK Sokol Saratov
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
10/2/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 12Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

FK Sokol Saratov31%
×Draw29%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Sokol Saratov
1.00
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.20

Alaniya Vladikavkaz creates 20% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 70 away

creates per match

FK Sokol Saratov
0.67
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.24

allows per match

FK Sokol Saratov
1.16
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.33

finishing

FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par
Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sokol Saratov ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

FK Sokol Saratov or draw
59%
FK Sokol Saratov or Alaniya Vladikavkaz
71%
Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz
69%

Winning margin

FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+
11%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals
63%
FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals
26%
FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals
8%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals
70%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals
34%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)
43%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sokol Saratov at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.16 · 51 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.33 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sokol Saratov attack 0.67 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.24 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FK Sokol Saratov scores more
31%
level
29%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more
41%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Alaniya Vladikavkaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Sokol Saratov vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz

FK Sokol Saratov and Alaniya Vladikavkaz drew 0-0 in First League on October 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Saratov.