Alaniya Vladikavkaz 0–0 FK Sokol Saratov

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FK Sokol Saratov

3/10/2024

First League · Round 22Akhmat Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz50%

×Draw25%

FK Sokol Saratov24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alaniya VladikavkazExpected goals in this matchFK Sokol Saratov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.00

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.56

FK Sokol Saratov

1.00

Alaniya Vladikavkaz creates 56% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 51 away

1.57

creates per match

0.76

1.24

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.57

FK Sokol Saratov

0.76

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.24

FK Sokol Saratov

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz ↓

FK Sokol Saratov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or draw

76%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or FK Sokol Saratov

75%

Draw or FK Sokol Saratov

50%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+

26%

FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals

79%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals

46%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals

21%

FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals

63%

FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals

26%

FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)

67%

FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.24 · 70 matches

FK Sokol Saratov away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.55 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.57 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.56

FK Sokol Saratov attack 0.76 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more

50%

level

25%

FK Sokol Saratov scores more

24%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Alaniya Vladikavkaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff