FK Sarajevo vs Zvijezda 09 — Premijer Liga 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 24+ matches
FK Sarajevo74%
Zvijezda 099%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FK Sarajevo creates 266% more chances
Season form · 116 home / 24 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over54
- Under46
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- No59
- Yes41
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
FK Sarajevo ↓
Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
FK Sarajevo at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.77 · 116 matches
Zvijezda 09 away — creates 0.46, concedes 2.63 · 24 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
FK Sarajevo attack 1.82 + Zvijezda 09 defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.23
Zvijezda 09 attack 0.46 + FK Sarajevo defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.61
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 74%?"
FK Sarajevo at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 74% does not mean "FK Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
FK Sarajevo substitutes
Zvijezda 09 substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
FK Sarajevo host Zvijezda 09 on Sunday, 15 September 2019 at 17:30. The match is part of the Premijer Liga 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: FK Sarajevo vs Zvijezda 09
FK Sarajevo beat Zvijezda 09 2-0 in Premijer Liga on September 15, 2019.
Goals: A. Mustafić (43'), M. Ahmetović (53').
The match was played at Olimpijski Stadion Asim Ferhatović Hase in Sarajevo.