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Zvijezda 09 vs FK Sarajevo — Premijer Liga 2019

Zvijezda 09
Zvijezda 09
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FK Sarajevo
FK Sarajevo
12/7/2019Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 19Novi Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Zvijezda 0930%
×Draw25%
FK Sarajevo45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvijezda 09
1.21
FK Sarajevo
1.55

FK Sarajevo creates 28% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 108 away

creates per match

Zvijezda 09
1.22
FK Sarajevo
1.32

allows per match

Zvijezda 09
1.78
FK Sarajevo
1.19

finishing

Zvijezda 09+0.00on par
FK Sarajevo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvijezda 09 ↓

FK Sarajevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Zvijezda 09 or draw
55%
Zvijezda 09 or FK Sarajevo
75%
Draw or FK Sarajevo
70%

Winning margin

Zvijezda 09 wins by 2+
12%
FK Sarajevo wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Zvijezda 09 1+ goals
70%
Zvijezda 09 2+ goals
34%
Zvijezda 09 3+ goals
12%
FK Sarajevo 1+ goals
79%
FK Sarajevo 2+ goals
46%
FK Sarajevo 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Zvijezda 09 (draw refunded)
40%
FK Sarajevo (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvijezda 09 at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 27 matches

FK Sarajevo away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.19 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvijezda 09 attack 1.22 + FK Sarajevo defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

FK Sarajevo attack 1.32 + Zvijezda 09 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Zvijezda 09 scores more
30%
level
25%
FK Sarajevo scores more
45%

FK Sarajevo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FK Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zvijezda 09 vs FK Sarajevo

Zvijezda 09 and FK Sarajevo drew 1-1 in Premijer Liga on December 7, 2019.

The match was played at Novi Gradski Stadion in Ugljevik.