FK Sarajevo 2–0 Čelik: Result & Stats

FK Sarajevo

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Čelik

M. Ahmetović 85'

A. Rahmanović 60'

10/18/2019

Premijer Liga · Round 13Olimpijski Stadion Asim Ferhatović Hase

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

FK Sarajevo74%

×Draw17%

Čelik10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK SarajevoExpected goals in this matchČelik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

0.72

FK Sarajevo

2.35

Čelik

0.72

FK Sarajevo creates 226% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 18 away

1.82

creates per match

0.67

0.77

allows per match

2.89

creates per match

FK Sarajevo

1.82

Čelik

0.67

allows per match

FK Sarajevo

0.77

Čelik

2.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Sarajevo+0.00on par

Čelik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sarajevo ↓

Čelik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FK Sarajevo or draw

90%

FK Sarajevo or Čelik

83%

Draw or Čelik

26%

Winning margin

FK Sarajevo wins by 2+

50%

Čelik wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

FK Sarajevo 1+ goals

90%

FK Sarajevo 2+ goals

68%

FK Sarajevo 3+ goals

41%

Čelik 1+ goals

51%

Čelik 2+ goals

16%

Čelik 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

FK Sarajevo (draw refunded)

88%

Čelik (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sarajevo at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.77 · 116 matches

Čelik away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.89 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sarajevo attack 1.82 + Čelik defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.35

Čelik attack 0.67 + FK Sarajevo defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

FK Sarajevo scores more

74%

level

17%

Čelik scores more

10%

FK Sarajevo at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "FK Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

A. Blazevic

43'

N. Jamak

57'

M. Perisic

58'

A. Mahmutovic

60'

A. Rahmanović

61'

L. Pecejl

63'

E. Huseinbašić← A. Mahmutović

67'

A. Dokanovic

71'

A. Šišić← A. Đokanović

76'

B. Pavlovic

85'

S. Okic

85'

M. Stanojević← S. Milanović

85'

M. Ahmetović

87'

T. Isić← A. Blažević

87'

S. Žuna← A. Dedić

89'

Nathan← B. Tatar

FK

Čelik

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: H. Musemić

71'▲A. Šišić←▼A. Đokanović

85'▲M. Stanojević←▼S. Milanović

89'▲Nathan←▼B. Tatar

FK Sarajevo substitutes

ŠišićStanojevićNathan

Manager: S. Božičić

63'▲E. Huseinbašić←▼A. Mahmutović

87'▲T. Isić←▼A. Blažević

87'▲S. Žuna←▼A. Dedić

Čelik substitutes

HuseinbašićIsićŽuna