Čelik 1–1 FK Sarajevo: Result & Stats | League #314

Čelik

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FK Sarajevo

E. Durmiš 57' (pen)

H. Čataković 35'

10/19/2022

League #314 · Round of 32Stadion Bilino Polje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Čelik20%

×Draw23%

FK Sarajevo57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ČelikExpected goals in this matchFK Sarajevo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.83

Čelik

1.00

FK Sarajevo

1.83

FK Sarajevo creates 83% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

0.33

creates per match

1.00

2.67

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Čelik

0.33

FK Sarajevo

1.00

allows per match

Čelik

2.67

FK Sarajevo

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Čelik+0.00on par

FK Sarajevo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Čelik ↓

FK Sarajevo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Čelik or draw

43%

Čelik or FK Sarajevo

77%

Draw or FK Sarajevo

80%

Winning margin

Čelik wins by 2+

7%

FK Sarajevo wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Čelik 1+ goals

63%

Čelik 2+ goals

26%

Čelik 3+ goals

8%

FK Sarajevo 1+ goals

84%

FK Sarajevo 2+ goals

54%

FK Sarajevo 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Čelik (draw refunded)

26%

FK Sarajevo (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Čelik at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

FK Sarajevo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Čelik attack 0.33 + FK Sarajevo defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

FK Sarajevo attack 1.00 + Čelik defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Čelik scores more

20%

level

23%

FK Sarajevo scores more

57%

FK Sarajevo at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "FK Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

H. Čataković

57'

E. DurmišPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff