FK Sarajevo 0–1 Borac Banja Luka: Result & Stats

FK Sarajevo

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Borac Banja Luka

5/3/2026

Premijer Liga · Round 32Olimpijski Stadion Asim Ferhatovic Hase

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

FK Sarajevo44%

×Draw27%

Borac Banja Luka29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK SarajevoExpected goals in this matchBorac Banja Luka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.05

FK Sarajevo

1.38

Borac Banja Luka

1.05

FK Sarajevo creates 31% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 109 away

1.77

creates per match

1.30

0.80

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

FK Sarajevo

1.77

Borac Banja Luka

1.30

allows per match

FK Sarajevo

0.80

Borac Banja Luka

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Sarajevo+0.00on par

Borac Banja Luka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sarajevo ↓

Borac Banja Luka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

FK Sarajevo or draw

71%

FK Sarajevo or Borac Banja Luka

73%

Draw or Borac Banja Luka

56%

Winning margin

FK Sarajevo wins by 2+

21%

Borac Banja Luka wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FK Sarajevo 1+ goals

75%

FK Sarajevo 2+ goals

40%

FK Sarajevo 3+ goals

16%

Borac Banja Luka 1+ goals

65%

Borac Banja Luka 2+ goals

28%

Borac Banja Luka 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

FK Sarajevo (draw refunded)

61%

Borac Banja Luka (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sarajevo at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.80 · 114 matches

Borac Banja Luka away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.98 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sarajevo attack 1.77 + Borac Banja Luka defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.38

Borac Banja Luka attack 1.30 + FK Sarajevo defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FK Sarajevo scores more

44%

level

27%

Borac Banja Luka scores more

29%

FK Sarajevo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FK Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff