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Borac Banja Luka vs FK Sarajevo — Premijer Liga 2019

Borac Banja Luka
Borac Banja Luka
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
FK Sarajevo
FK Sarajevo
4/19/2025Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 26Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Borac Banja Luka52%
×Draw25%
FK Sarajevo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borac Banja Luka
1.60
FK Sarajevo
0.98

Borac Banja Luka creates 63% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 108 away

creates per match

Borac Banja Luka
2.02
FK Sarajevo
1.32

allows per match

Borac Banja Luka
0.63
FK Sarajevo
1.19

finishing

Borac Banja Luka+0.00on par
FK Sarajevo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Banja Luka ↓

FK Sarajevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Borac Banja Luka or draw
77%
Borac Banja Luka or FK Sarajevo
75%
Draw or FK Sarajevo
48%

Winning margin

Borac Banja Luka wins by 2+
27%
FK Sarajevo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Borac Banja Luka 1+ goals
80%
Borac Banja Luka 2+ goals
47%
Borac Banja Luka 3+ goals
22%
FK Sarajevo 1+ goals
62%
FK Sarajevo 2+ goals
26%
FK Sarajevo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Borac Banja Luka (draw refunded)
69%
FK Sarajevo (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Banja Luka at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.63 · 114 matches

FK Sarajevo away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.19 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Banja Luka attack 2.02 + FK Sarajevo defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.60

FK Sarajevo attack 1.32 + Borac Banja Luka defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Borac Banja Luka scores more
52%
level
25%
FK Sarajevo scores more
23%

Borac Banja Luka at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Borac Banja Luka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Borac Banja Luka vs FK Sarajevo

Borac Banja Luka beat FK Sarajevo 2-0 in Premijer Liga on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Banja Luka.