FK Neftekhimik 1–3 Rotor Volgograd: Result & Stats

FK Neftekhimik

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Rotor Volgograd

9/15/2021

First League · Round 11Stadion Neftekhimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

FK Neftekhimik39%

×Draw29%

Rotor Volgograd31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK NeftekhimikExpected goals in this matchRotor Volgograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.00

FK Neftekhimik

1.15

Rotor Volgograd

1.00

FK Neftekhimik creates 15% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 87 away

1.32

creates per match

1.06

0.95

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

FK Neftekhimik

1.32

Rotor Volgograd

1.06

allows per match

FK Neftekhimik

0.95

Rotor Volgograd

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Neftekhimik ↓

Rotor Volgograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

FK Neftekhimik or draw

69%

FK Neftekhimik or Rotor Volgograd

71%

Draw or Rotor Volgograd

61%

Winning margin

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+

16%

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals

68%

FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals

32%

FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals

11%

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals

63%

Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals

26%

Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)

55%

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Neftekhimik at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.95 · 121 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.97 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.32 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.15

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.06 + FK Neftekhimik defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FK Neftekhimik scores more

39%

level

29%

Rotor Volgograd scores more

31%

FK Neftekhimik at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FK Neftekhimik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff