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FK Neftekhimik vs Fakel Voronezh — First League 2018

FK Neftekhimik
FK Neftekhimik
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Fakel Voronezh
Fakel Voronezh
8/14/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 6Stadion Neftekhimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

FK Neftekhimik42%
×Draw27%
Fakel Voronezh30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Neftekhimik
1.32
Fakel Voronezh
1.07

FK Neftekhimik creates 23% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 89 away

creates per match

FK Neftekhimik
1.33
Fakel Voronezh
1.20

allows per match

FK Neftekhimik
0.95
Fakel Voronezh
1.31

finishing

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par
Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Neftekhimik ↓

Fakel Voronezh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FK Neftekhimik or draw
70%
FK Neftekhimik or Fakel Voronezh
73%
Draw or Fakel Voronezh
58%

Winning margin

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+
19%
Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals
73%
FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals
38%
FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals
15%
Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals
66%
Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals
29%
Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)
58%
Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Neftekhimik at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.95 · 122 matches

Fakel Voronezh away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.31 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.33 + Fakel Voronezh defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.32

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.20 + FK Neftekhimik defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FK Neftekhimik scores more
42%
level
27%
Fakel Voronezh scores more
30%

FK Neftekhimik at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FK Neftekhimik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Neftekhimik vs Fakel Voronezh

FK Neftekhimik beat Fakel Voronezh 3-0 in First League on August 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Neftekhimik in Nizhnekamsk.