FK Neftekhimik 0–2 Fakel: Result & Stats

FK Neftekhimik

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Fakel

4/1/2026

First League · Round 23Neftekhimik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

FK Neftekhimik42%

×Draw27%

Fakel30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK NeftekhimikExpected goals in this matchFakel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.07

FK Neftekhimik

1.32

Fakel

1.07

FK Neftekhimik creates 23% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 89 away

1.33

creates per match

1.20

0.95

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

FK Neftekhimik

1.33

Fakel

1.20

allows per match

FK Neftekhimik

0.95

Fakel

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Fakel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Neftekhimik ↓

Fakel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

FK Neftekhimik or draw

70%

FK Neftekhimik or Fakel

73%

Draw or Fakel

58%

Winning margin

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+

19%

Fakel wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals

73%

FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals

38%

FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals

15%

Fakel 1+ goals

66%

Fakel 2+ goals

29%

Fakel 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)

58%

Fakel (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Neftekhimik at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.95 · 122 matches

Fakel away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.31 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.33 + Fakel defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.32

Fakel attack 1.20 + FK Neftekhimik defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FK Neftekhimik scores more

42%

level

27%

Fakel scores more

30%

FK Neftekhimik at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FK Neftekhimik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff