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FK Neftekhimik vs Dinamo Bryansk — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FK Neftekhimik
FK Neftekhimik
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
1/27/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion FGUP Yugsport

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

FK Neftekhimik50%
×Draw26%
Dinamo Bryansk25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Neftekhimik
1.53
Dinamo Bryansk
1.00

FK Neftekhimik creates 53% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 8 away

creates per match

FK Neftekhimik
2.19
Dinamo Bryansk
0.75

allows per match

FK Neftekhimik
1.25
Dinamo Bryansk
0.88

finishing

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par
Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Neftekhimik ↓

Dinamo Bryansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FK Neftekhimik or draw
75%
FK Neftekhimik or Dinamo Bryansk
74%
Draw or Dinamo Bryansk
50%

Winning margin

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+
25%
Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals
78%
FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals
45%
FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals
20%
Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
63%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
26%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)
67%
Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Neftekhimik at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

Dinamo Bryansk away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Neftekhimik attack 2.19 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.53

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.75 + FK Neftekhimik defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FK Neftekhimik scores more
50%
level
26%
Dinamo Bryansk scores more
25%

FK Neftekhimik at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FK Neftekhimik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Neftekhimik vs Dinamo Bryansk

FK Neftekhimik beat Dinamo Bryansk 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FGUP Yugsport in Sochi.