FK Neftekhimik 0–1 Dinamo Bryansk: Result & Stats

FK Neftekhimik

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo Bryansk

8/26/2020

Cup · 3rd RoundStadion Neftekhimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FK Neftekhimik19%

×Draw24%

Dinamo Bryansk57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK NeftekhimikExpected goals in this matchDinamo Bryansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.82

1.65

FK Neftekhimik

0.82

Dinamo Bryansk

1.65

Dinamo Bryansk creates 101% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

0.50

creates per match

1.29

2.00

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

FK Neftekhimik

0.50

Dinamo Bryansk

1.29

allows per match

FK Neftekhimik

2.00

Dinamo Bryansk

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Neftekhimik ↓

Dinamo Bryansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–114%

0–212%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

FK Neftekhimik or draw

43%

FK Neftekhimik or Dinamo Bryansk

76%

Draw or Dinamo Bryansk

81%

Winning margin

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+

6%

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals

56%

FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals

20%

FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals

5%

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals

81%

Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals

49%

Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)

25%

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Neftekhimik at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Dinamo Bryansk away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Neftekhimik attack 0.50 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.82

Dinamo Bryansk attack 1.29 + FK Neftekhimik defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

FK Neftekhimik scores more

19%

level

24%

Dinamo Bryansk scores more

57%

Dinamo Bryansk at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Dinamo Bryansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff