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FK Neftekhimik vs Baltika — First League 2018

FK Neftekhimik
FK Neftekhimik
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Baltika
Baltika
D. Emelyanov 42'
Y. Kovalev 73'
A. Osipov 63'
11/9/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 18Stadion Neftekhimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

FK Neftekhimik36%
×Draw28%
Baltika35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Neftekhimik
1.17
Baltika
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 122 home / 109 away

creates per match

FK Neftekhimik
1.33
Baltika
1.34

allows per match

FK Neftekhimik
0.95
Baltika
1.00

finishing

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par
Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Neftekhimik ↓

Baltika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FK Neftekhimik or draw
65%
FK Neftekhimik or Baltika
72%
Draw or Baltika
64%

Winning margin

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+
15%
Baltika wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals
69%
FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals
33%
FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals
11%
Baltika 1+ goals
68%
Baltika 2+ goals
32%
Baltika 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)
51%
Baltika (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Neftekhimik at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.95 · 122 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.00 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.33 + Baltika defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Baltika attack 1.34 + FK Neftekhimik defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

FK Neftekhimik scores more
36%
level
28%
Baltika scores more
35%

FK Neftekhimik at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "FK Neftekhimik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
Konstantin Shiltsov
40'
Vladislav Saus
42'
D. Emelyanov
46'
I. Stefanovich← V. Lisakovich
46'
A. Mokhammad← V. Saus
56'
Kevin Andrade
60'
K. Appaev← I. Petrov
63'
A. Osipov
72'
S. Aliev← R. Magomedov
72'
R. Golybin← M. Pershin
73'
Y. Kovalev
81'
D. Rodin← K. Shiltsov
81'
D. Terentyev← Y. Kovalev
86'
D. Begun← A. Eldarushev
90+2'
Amir Mokhammad

Statistics

FKBaltika
Discipline
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: FK Neftekhimik vs Baltika

Baltika beat FK Neftekhimik 2-1 in First League on November 9, 2024.

Goals: D. Emelyanov (42'), A. Osipov (63'), Y. Kovalev (73').

The match was played at Stadion Neftekhimik in Nizhnekamsk.