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Baltika vs FK Neftekhimik — First League 2018

Baltika
Baltika
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FK Neftekhimik
FK Neftekhimik
10/6/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 13Rostec Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Baltika43%
×Draw29%
FK Neftekhimik28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baltika
1.23
FK Neftekhimik
0.94

Baltika creates 31% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 123 away

creates per match

Baltika
1.27
FK Neftekhimik
1.12

allows per match

Baltika
0.75
FK Neftekhimik
1.19

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par
FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

FK Neftekhimik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Baltika or draw
72%
Baltika or FK Neftekhimik
71%
Draw or FK Neftekhimik
57%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+
19%
FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals
71%
Baltika 2+ goals
35%
Baltika 3+ goals
13%
FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals
61%
FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals
24%
FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)
60%
FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.75 · 108 matches

FK Neftekhimik away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.19 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.27 + FK Neftekhimik defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.12 + Baltika defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Baltika scores more
43%
level
29%
FK Neftekhimik scores more
28%

Baltika at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'
Alex← V. Lisakovich
57'
Y. Kovalev← S. Pryakhin
57'
A. Eldarushev← K. Appaev
61'
Andrey Mendel
65'
Nikolay Tolstopyatov
80'
N. Titkov← V. Saus
80'
T. Avanesyan← I. Petrov
84'
D. Rodin← D. Emelyanov
84'
R. Denisov← K. Shiltsov
89'
S. Aliev← S. Dzhamilov
90+4'
Aleksandr Kakhidze

Statistics

BaltikaFK
Discipline
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

First League: Baltika 0–0 FK Neftekhimik

Baltika and FK Neftekhimik drew 0-0 in First League on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Rostec Arena in Kaliningrad.