FK Neftekhimik 0–0 Alaniya II: Result & Stats

FK Neftekhimik

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Alaniya II

9/19/2020

First League · Round 10Stadion Neftekhimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

FK Neftekhimik34%

×Draw29%

Alaniya II37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK NeftekhimikExpected goals in this matchAlaniya II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.17

FK Neftekhimik

1.11

Alaniya II

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 122 home / 21 away

1.33

creates per match

1.38

0.95

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

FK Neftekhimik

1.33

Alaniya II

1.38

allows per match

FK Neftekhimik

0.95

Alaniya II

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Alaniya II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Neftekhimik ↓

Alaniya II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

FK Neftekhimik or draw

63%

FK Neftekhimik or Alaniya II

71%

Draw or Alaniya II

66%

Winning margin

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+

14%

Alaniya II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals

67%

FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals

30%

FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals

10%

Alaniya II 1+ goals

69%

Alaniya II 2+ goals

33%

Alaniya II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)

48%

Alaniya II (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Neftekhimik at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.95 · 122 matches

Alaniya II away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.33 + Alaniya II defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.11

Alaniya II attack 1.38 + FK Neftekhimik defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FK Neftekhimik scores more

34%

level

29%

Alaniya II scores more

37%

Alaniya II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Alaniya II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff