Alaniya II 1–1 FK Neftekhimik: Result & Stats

Alaniya II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

FK Neftekhimik

3/14/2021

First League · Round 30Respublikanskiy stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Alaniya II52%

×Draw24%

FK Neftekhimik24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alaniya IIExpected goals in this matchFK Neftekhimik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.06

Alaniya II

1.67

FK Neftekhimik

1.06

Alaniya II creates 58% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 123 away

2.14

creates per match

1.12

1.00

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Alaniya II

2.14

FK Neftekhimik

1.12

allows per match

Alaniya II

1.00

FK Neftekhimik

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alaniya II+0.00on par

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya II ↓

FK Neftekhimik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Alaniya II or draw

76%

Alaniya II or FK Neftekhimik

76%

Draw or FK Neftekhimik

48%

Winning margin

Alaniya II wins by 2+

28%

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Alaniya II 1+ goals

81%

Alaniya II 2+ goals

50%

Alaniya II 3+ goals

23%

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals

65%

FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals

29%

FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Alaniya II (draw refunded)

68%

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya II at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.00 · 21 matches

FK Neftekhimik away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.19 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya II attack 2.14 + FK Neftekhimik defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.67

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.12 + Alaniya II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Alaniya II scores more

52%

level

24%

FK Neftekhimik scores more

24%

Alaniya II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Alaniya II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff