FK Minyor Pernik 0–2 Dunav Ruse: Result & Stats

FK Minyor Pernik

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Dunav Ruse

R. Apostolov 86'

K. Boychev 51'

3/9/2025

Second League · Round 25Stadion Minyor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

FK Minyor Pernik40%

×Draw29%

Dunav Ruse31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Minyor PernikExpected goals in this matchDunav Ruse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.02

FK Minyor Pernik

1.19

Dunav Ruse

1.02

FK Minyor Pernik creates 17% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 69 away

1.24

creates per match

1.19

0.85

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

FK Minyor Pernik

1.24

Dunav Ruse

1.19

allows per match

FK Minyor Pernik

0.85

Dunav Ruse

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Minyor Pernik+0.00on par

Dunav Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Minyor Pernik ↓

Dunav Ruse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

FK Minyor Pernik or draw

69%

FK Minyor Pernik or Dunav Ruse

71%

Draw or Dunav Ruse

60%

Winning margin

FK Minyor Pernik wins by 2+

17%

Dunav Ruse wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FK Minyor Pernik 1+ goals

70%

FK Minyor Pernik 2+ goals

33%

FK Minyor Pernik 3+ goals

12%

Dunav Ruse 1+ goals

64%

Dunav Ruse 2+ goals

27%

Dunav Ruse 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

FK Minyor Pernik (draw refunded)

56%

Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Minyor Pernik at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.85 · 84 matches

Dunav Ruse away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.14 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Minyor Pernik attack 1.24 + Dunav Ruse defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Dunav Ruse attack 1.19 + FK Minyor Pernik defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FK Minyor Pernik scores more

40%

level

29%

Dunav Ruse scores more

31%

FK Minyor Pernik at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FK Minyor Pernik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

T. Dobrev← M. Dadakov

51'

K. Boychev

56'

D. Dzhorov← V. Semerdzhiev

57'

K. Yosifov← Y. Yordanov

61'

R. Apostolov

72'

K. Simeonov← V. Petrov

73'

D. Sergiev← B. Chukanov

78'

S. Predev← D. Minchev

86'

R. Apostolov

87'

K. Gospodinov← R. Apostolov

90'

G. Madzharov

90+1'

D. Dimitrov← J. NSondé

FK

Dunav

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: H. Gospodinov

46'▲T. Dobrev←▼M. Dadakov

56'▲D. Dzhorov←▼V. Semerdzhiev

57'▲K. Yosifov←▼Y. Yordanov

72'▲K. Simeonov←▼V. Petrov

73'▲D. Sergiev←▼B. Chukanov

FK Minyor Pernik substitutes

DobrevDzhorovYosifovSimeonovSergievStoimenovBozhidarovChilikovViktorov

Manager: G. Chilikov

78'▲S. Predev←▼D. Minchev

87'▲K. Gospodinov←▼R. Apostolov

90+1'▲D. Dimitrov←▼J. NSondé

Dunav Ruse substitutes

PredevGospodinovDimitrovSimeonovStefanovTasevDimitrovPehlivanov

Match Recap: FK Minyor Pernik vs Dunav Ruse

Dunav Ruse beat FK Minyor Pernik 2-0 in Second League on March 9, 2025.

Goals: K. Boychev (51'), R. Apostolov (86').

The match was played at Stadion Minyor in Pernik.

FK Minyor Pernik vs Dunav Ruse — Second League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: FK Minyor Pernik vs Dunav Ruse