Dunav Ruse 1–0 FK Minyor Pernik: Result & Stats

Dunav Ruse

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FK Minyor Pernik

J. N'Sondé 34'

8/25/2024

Second League · Round 6Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Dunav Ruse56%

×Draw26%

FK Minyor Pernik19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dunav RuseExpected goals in this matchFK Minyor Pernik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.77

Dunav Ruse

1.54

FK Minyor Pernik

0.77

Dunav Ruse creates 100% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 85 away

1.45

creates per match

0.87

0.67

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Dunav Ruse

1.45

FK Minyor Pernik

0.87

allows per match

Dunav Ruse

0.67

FK Minyor Pernik

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunav Ruse+0.00on par

FK Minyor Pernik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Ruse ↓

FK Minyor Pernik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Dunav Ruse or draw

81%

Dunav Ruse or FK Minyor Pernik

74%

Draw or FK Minyor Pernik

44%

Winning margin

Dunav Ruse wins by 2+

29%

FK Minyor Pernik wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Dunav Ruse 1+ goals

79%

Dunav Ruse 2+ goals

45%

Dunav Ruse 3+ goals

20%

FK Minyor Pernik 1+ goals

54%

FK Minyor Pernik 2+ goals

18%

FK Minyor Pernik 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)

75%

FK Minyor Pernik (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Ruse at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.67 · 69 matches

FK Minyor Pernik away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.62 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Ruse attack 1.45 + FK Minyor Pernik defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.54

FK Minyor Pernik attack 0.87 + Dunav Ruse defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Dunav Ruse scores more

56%

level

26%

FK Minyor Pernik scores more

19%

Dunav Ruse at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Dunav Ruse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

K. Slishkov

23'

Y. Yordanov

34'

J. N'Sondé

58'

V. Ivanov← D. Stoimenov

61'

M. Vangelov← D. Zakonov

66'

G. Angelov← P. Vutsov

71'

V. Ivanov

74'

N. Dichev

75'

D. Manolov← M. Orachev

80'

D. Minchev← S. Veshev

86'

D. Hasan← J. NSondé

89'

K. Hadzhiev

Dunav

FK

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: I. Tanchovski

61'▲M. Vangelov←▼D. Zakonov

80'▲D. Minchev←▼S. Veshev

86'▲D. Hasan←▼J. NSondé

Dunav Ruse substitutes

VangelovMinchevHasanGoshevGospodinovDimitrovStefanov

Manager: H. Gospodinov

58'▲V. Ivanov←▼D. Stoimenov

66'▲G. Angelov←▼P. Vutsov

75'▲D. Manolov←▼M. Orachev

FK Minyor Pernik substitutes

IvanovAngelovManolovBozhidarovVelichkovViktorovVasilev