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FK Minyor Pernik vs Chavdar Etropole — Third League - Southwest 2018

FK Minyor Pernik
FK Minyor Pernik
CANC
13:00
Chavdar Etropole
Chavdar Etropole
4/6/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 28Stadion Minyor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

FK Minyor Pernik52%
×Draw23%
Chavdar Etropole24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Minyor Pernik
1.79
Chavdar Etropole
1.14

FK Minyor Pernik creates 57% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 87 away

creates per match

FK Minyor Pernik
2.25
Chavdar Etropole
1.55

allows per match

FK Minyor Pernik
0.73
Chavdar Etropole
1.34

finishing

FK Minyor Pernik+0.00on par
Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Minyor Pernik ↓

Chavdar Etropole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FK Minyor Pernik or draw
76%
FK Minyor Pernik or Chavdar Etropole
77%
Draw or Chavdar Etropole
48%

Winning margin

FK Minyor Pernik wins by 2+
29%
Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FK Minyor Pernik 1+ goals
83%
FK Minyor Pernik 2+ goals
53%
FK Minyor Pernik 3+ goals
26%
Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals
68%
Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals
32%
Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FK Minyor Pernik (draw refunded)
68%
Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Minyor Pernik at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.73 · 44 matches

Chavdar Etropole away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.34 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Minyor Pernik attack 2.25 + Chavdar Etropole defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.79

Chavdar Etropole attack 1.55 + FK Minyor Pernik defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FK Minyor Pernik scores more
52%
level
23%
Chavdar Etropole scores more
24%

FK Minyor Pernik at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FK Minyor Pernik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FK Minyor Pernik face Chavdar Etropole (Third League - Southwest)

Third League - Southwest returns with FK Minyor Pernik hosting Chavdar Etropole. Match starts April 6, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

FK Minyor Pernik host Chavdar Etropole at Stadion Minyor.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.