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Chavdar Etropole vs FK Minyor Pernik — Third League - Southwest 2018

Chavdar Etropole
Chavdar Etropole
FT
0 – 1
FK Minyor Pernik
FK Minyor Pernik
3/2/2019Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Round 19Stadion Chavdar (Etropole)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Chavdar Etropole45%
×Draw26%
FK Minyor Pernik30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chavdar Etropole
1.49
FK Minyor Pernik
1.17

Chavdar Etropole creates 27% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 45 away

creates per match

Chavdar Etropole
2.08
FK Minyor Pernik
1.49

allows per match

Chavdar Etropole
0.84
FK Minyor Pernik
0.89

finishing

Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par
FK Minyor Pernik+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chavdar Etropole ↓

FK Minyor Pernik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Chavdar Etropole or draw
70%
Chavdar Etropole or FK Minyor Pernik
74%
Draw or FK Minyor Pernik
55%

Winning margin

Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+
22%
FK Minyor Pernik wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals
77%
Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals
44%
Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals
19%
FK Minyor Pernik 1+ goals
69%
FK Minyor Pernik 2+ goals
33%
FK Minyor Pernik 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)
60%
FK Minyor Pernik (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chavdar Etropole at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.84 · 87 matches

FK Minyor Pernik away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chavdar Etropole attack 2.08 + FK Minyor Pernik defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.49

FK Minyor Pernik attack 1.49 + Chavdar Etropole defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chavdar Etropole scores more
45%
level
26%
FK Minyor Pernik scores more
30%

Chavdar Etropole at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chavdar Etropole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chavdar Etropole vs FK Minyor Pernik

FK Minyor Pernik beat Chavdar Etropole 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on March 2, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Chavdar (Etropole).