FK Minyor Pernik 3–0 Botev Plovdiv II

FK Minyor Pernik

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Botev Plovdiv II

3/5/2023

Second League · Round 21Stadion Minyor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

FK Minyor Pernik59%

×Draw25%

Botev Plovdiv II16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Minyor PernikExpected goals in this matchBotev Plovdiv II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.69

FK Minyor Pernik

1.58

Botev Plovdiv II

0.69

FK Minyor Pernik creates 129% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 54 away

1.24

creates per match

0.52

0.85

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

FK Minyor Pernik

1.24

Botev Plovdiv II

0.52

allows per match

FK Minyor Pernik

0.85

Botev Plovdiv II

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Minyor Pernik+0.00on par

Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Minyor Pernik ↓

Botev Plovdiv II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

FK Minyor Pernik or draw

84%

FK Minyor Pernik or Botev Plovdiv II

75%

Draw or Botev Plovdiv II

41%

Winning margin

FK Minyor Pernik wins by 2+

32%

Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

FK Minyor Pernik 1+ goals

79%

FK Minyor Pernik 2+ goals

47%

FK Minyor Pernik 3+ goals

21%

Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals

50%

Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals

15%

Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

FK Minyor Pernik (draw refunded)

78%

Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Minyor Pernik at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.85 · 84 matches

Botev Plovdiv II away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.93 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Minyor Pernik attack 1.24 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.58

Botev Plovdiv II attack 0.52 + FK Minyor Pernik defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

FK Minyor Pernik scores more

59%

level

25%

Botev Plovdiv II scores more

16%

FK Minyor Pernik at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "FK Minyor Pernik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff