Botev Plovdiv II 1–1 FK Minyor Pernik

Botev Plovdiv II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

FK Minyor Pernik

8/8/2022

Second League · Round 4Sporten kompleks Botev 1912

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Botev Plovdiv II46%

×Draw27%

FK Minyor Pernik28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev Plovdiv IIExpected goals in this matchFK Minyor Pernik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.03

Botev Plovdiv II

1.41

FK Minyor Pernik

1.03

Botev Plovdiv II creates 37% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 85 away

1.20

creates per match

0.87

1.20

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv II

1.20

FK Minyor Pernik

0.87

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv II

1.20

FK Minyor Pernik

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par

FK Minyor Pernik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv II ↓

FK Minyor Pernik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv II or draw

72%

Botev Plovdiv II or FK Minyor Pernik

73%

Draw or FK Minyor Pernik

54%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+

22%

FK Minyor Pernik wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals

76%

Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals

41%

Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals

17%

FK Minyor Pernik 1+ goals

64%

FK Minyor Pernik 2+ goals

28%

FK Minyor Pernik 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)

62%

FK Minyor Pernik (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv II at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 55 matches

FK Minyor Pernik away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.62 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv II attack 1.20 + FK Minyor Pernik defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.41

FK Minyor Pernik attack 0.87 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Botev Plovdiv II scores more

46%

level

27%

FK Minyor Pernik scores more

28%

Botev Plovdiv II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff