FK Minyor Pernik 4–0 Botev Ihtiman: Result & Stats

FK Minyor Pernik

FT

4 – 0

Botev Ihtiman

3/6/2019

Third League - Southwest · Round 18Stadion Minyor (Pernik)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

FK Minyor Pernik63%

×Draw21%

Botev Ihtiman16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Minyor PernikExpected goals in this matchBotev Ihtiman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.85

FK Minyor Pernik

1.96

Botev Ihtiman

0.85

FK Minyor Pernik creates 131% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 132 away

2.25

creates per match

0.98

0.73

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

FK Minyor Pernik

2.25

Botev Ihtiman

0.98

allows per match

FK Minyor Pernik

0.73

Botev Ihtiman

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Minyor Pernik+0.00on par

Botev Ihtiman+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Minyor Pernik ↓

Botev Ihtiman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

FK Minyor Pernik or draw

84%

FK Minyor Pernik or Botev Ihtiman

79%

Draw or Botev Ihtiman

37%

Winning margin

FK Minyor Pernik wins by 2+

38%

Botev Ihtiman wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

FK Minyor Pernik 1+ goals

86%

FK Minyor Pernik 2+ goals

58%

FK Minyor Pernik 3+ goals

31%

Botev Ihtiman 1+ goals

57%

Botev Ihtiman 2+ goals

21%

Botev Ihtiman 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

FK Minyor Pernik (draw refunded)

80%

Botev Ihtiman (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Minyor Pernik at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.73 · 44 matches

Botev Ihtiman away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.67 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Minyor Pernik attack 2.25 + Botev Ihtiman defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.96

Botev Ihtiman attack 0.98 + FK Minyor Pernik defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

FK Minyor Pernik scores more

63%

level

21%

Botev Ihtiman scores more

16%

FK Minyor Pernik at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "FK Minyor Pernik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff