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Botev Ihtiman vs FK Minyor Pernik — Third League - Southwest 2018

Botev Ihtiman
Botev Ihtiman
CANC
00:00
FK Minyor Pernik
FK Minyor Pernik
4/15/2020Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Botev Ihtiman34%
×Draw26%
FK Minyor Pernik40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Ihtiman
1.26
FK Minyor Pernik
1.39

FK Minyor Pernik creates 10% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 45 away

creates per match

Botev Ihtiman
1.63
FK Minyor Pernik
1.49

allows per match

Botev Ihtiman
1.29
FK Minyor Pernik
0.89

finishing

Botev Ihtiman+0.00on par
FK Minyor Pernik+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Ihtiman ↓

FK Minyor Pernik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Botev Ihtiman or draw
60%
Botev Ihtiman or FK Minyor Pernik
74%
Draw or FK Minyor Pernik
66%

Winning margin

Botev Ihtiman wins by 2+
15%
FK Minyor Pernik wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Botev Ihtiman 1+ goals
72%
Botev Ihtiman 2+ goals
36%
Botev Ihtiman 3+ goals
13%
FK Minyor Pernik 1+ goals
75%
FK Minyor Pernik 2+ goals
40%
FK Minyor Pernik 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Botev Ihtiman (draw refunded)
46%
FK Minyor Pernik (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Ihtiman at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.29 · 131 matches

FK Minyor Pernik away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Ihtiman attack 1.63 + FK Minyor Pernik defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.26

FK Minyor Pernik attack 1.49 + Botev Ihtiman defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Botev Ihtiman scores more
34%
level
26%
FK Minyor Pernik scores more
40%

FK Minyor Pernik at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FK Minyor Pernik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botev Ihtiman vs FK Minyor Pernik — Match Preview

Botev Ihtiman face FK Minyor Pernik on April 15, 2020 in this Third League - Southwest fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.