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FK Minyor Pernik vs Balkan Botevgrad — Third League - Southwest 2018

FK Minyor Pernik
FK Minyor Pernik
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Balkan Botevgrad
Balkan Botevgrad
11/18/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 18Stadion Minyor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

FK Minyor Pernik60%
×Draw21%
Balkan Botevgrad18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Minyor Pernik
1.99
Balkan Botevgrad
1.00

FK Minyor Pernik creates 99% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 131 away

creates per match

FK Minyor Pernik
2.25
Balkan Botevgrad
1.27

allows per match

FK Minyor Pernik
0.73
Balkan Botevgrad
1.73

finishing

FK Minyor Pernik+0.00on par
Balkan Botevgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Minyor Pernik ↓

Balkan Botevgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FK Minyor Pernik or draw
82%
FK Minyor Pernik or Balkan Botevgrad
79%
Draw or Balkan Botevgrad
40%

Winning margin

FK Minyor Pernik wins by 2+
36%
Balkan Botevgrad wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FK Minyor Pernik 1+ goals
86%
FK Minyor Pernik 2+ goals
59%
FK Minyor Pernik 3+ goals
32%
Balkan Botevgrad 1+ goals
63%
Balkan Botevgrad 2+ goals
26%
Balkan Botevgrad 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

FK Minyor Pernik (draw refunded)
77%
Balkan Botevgrad (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Minyor Pernik at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.73 · 44 matches

Balkan Botevgrad away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.73 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Minyor Pernik attack 2.25 + Balkan Botevgrad defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.99

Balkan Botevgrad attack 1.27 + FK Minyor Pernik defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

FK Minyor Pernik scores more
60%
level
21%
Balkan Botevgrad scores more
18%

FK Minyor Pernik at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "FK Minyor Pernik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Minyor Pernik vs Balkan Botevgrad

FK Minyor Pernik beat Balkan Botevgrad 3-1 in Third League - Southwest on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Minyor in Pernik.