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Balkan Botevgrad vs FK Minyor Pernik — Third League - Southwest 2018

Balkan Botevgrad
Balkan Botevgrad
CANC
15:00
FK Minyor Pernik
FK Minyor Pernik
5/30/2020Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 34

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Balkan Botevgrad39%
×Draw26%
FK Minyor Pernik36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balkan Botevgrad
1.39
FK Minyor Pernik
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 129 home / 45 away

creates per match

Balkan Botevgrad
1.89
FK Minyor Pernik
1.49

allows per match

Balkan Botevgrad
1.15
FK Minyor Pernik
0.89

finishing

Balkan Botevgrad+0.00on par
FK Minyor Pernik+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balkan Botevgrad ↓

FK Minyor Pernik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Balkan Botevgrad or draw
64%
Balkan Botevgrad or FK Minyor Pernik
74%
Draw or FK Minyor Pernik
61%

Winning margin

Balkan Botevgrad wins by 2+
18%
FK Minyor Pernik wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Balkan Botevgrad 1+ goals
75%
Balkan Botevgrad 2+ goals
40%
Balkan Botevgrad 3+ goals
16%
FK Minyor Pernik 1+ goals
73%
FK Minyor Pernik 2+ goals
38%
FK Minyor Pernik 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Balkan Botevgrad (draw refunded)
52%
FK Minyor Pernik (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balkan Botevgrad at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.15 · 129 matches

FK Minyor Pernik away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balkan Botevgrad attack 1.89 + FK Minyor Pernik defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.39

FK Minyor Pernik attack 1.49 + Balkan Botevgrad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Balkan Botevgrad scores more
39%
level
26%
FK Minyor Pernik scores more
36%

Balkan Botevgrad at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Balkan Botevgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Balkan Botevgrad host FK Minyor Pernik

May 30, 2020: Balkan Botevgrad take on FK Minyor Pernik in Third League - Southwest. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.