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FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc — Czech Liga 2019

FK Jablonec
FK Jablonec
Preview
15:30
Sigma Olomouc
Sigma Olomouc
7/26/2026Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 1Stadion Strelnice
Big match
58%
FK Jablonec
model favours
58%22%21%

Sigma Olomouc are unbeaten in 7 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

FK Jablonec58%
×Draw22%
Sigma Olomouc21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Jablonec
2.00
Sigma Olomouc
1.11

FK Jablonec creates 80% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

FK Jablonec
2.03
Sigma Olomouc
1.23

allows per match

FK Jablonec
1.00
Sigma Olomouc
1.98

finishing

FK Jablonec-0.17scores less
Sigma Olomouc+0.44scores more

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Jablonec ↓

Sigma Olomouc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FK Jablonec or draw
79%
FK Jablonec or Sigma Olomouc
78%
Draw or Sigma Olomouc
42%

Winning margin

FK Jablonec wins by 2+
34%
Sigma Olomouc wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FK Jablonec 1+ goals
86%
FK Jablonec 2+ goals
59%
FK Jablonec 3+ goals
32%
Sigma Olomouc 1+ goals
67%
Sigma Olomouc 2+ goals
30%
Sigma Olomouc 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FK Jablonec (draw refunded)
74%
Sigma Olomouc (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Jablonec at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Sigma Olomouc away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.98 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Jablonec attack 2.03 + Sigma Olomouc defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.00

Sigma Olomouc attack 1.23 + FK Jablonec defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

FK Jablonec scores more
58%
level
22%
Sigma Olomouc scores more
21%

FK Jablonec at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "FK Jablonec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Sigma Olomouc have won 3 in a row
  • Both teams score in 83% of FK Jablonec’s matches
  • Sigma Olomouc win just 30% against the top half (vs 57% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
FK Jablonec
Balanced
Sigma Olomouc
Balanced
50%Possession45%
77%Pass accuracy70%
10.5Shots9.0
1.61xGBiggest gap1.36
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
FK JablonecSigma Olomouc

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
FK Jablonec
4
Draws
4
Sigma Olomouc
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 30%
1–20–24–00–00–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Jablonec
WLDD
Olomouc
WWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FK Jablonec face Sigma Olomouc (Czech Liga)

Czech Liga returns with FK Jablonec hosting Sigma Olomouc. Match starts July 26, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

FK Jablonec host Sigma Olomouc at Stadion Strelnice.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.