Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FK Jablonec vs Plzen — Czech Liga 2019

FK Jablonec
FK Jablonec
Preview
13:00
Plzen
Plzen
10/17/2026Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 11Stadion Strelnice
Big match
54%
FK Jablonec
model favours
54%22%24%

Both teams score in 83% of FK Jablonec’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

FK Jablonec54%
×Draw22%
Plzen24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Jablonec
1.93
Plzen
1.23

FK Jablonec creates 57% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

FK Jablonec
1.72
Plzen
1.41

allows per match

FK Jablonec
1.05
Plzen
2.14

finishing

FK Jablonec-0.32scores less
Plzen+0.02on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Jablonec ↓

Plzen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

FK Jablonec or draw
76%
FK Jablonec or Plzen
78%
Draw or Plzen
46%

Winning margin

FK Jablonec wins by 2+
31%
Plzen wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FK Jablonec 1+ goals
85%
FK Jablonec 2+ goals
57%
FK Jablonec 3+ goals
30%
Plzen 1+ goals
71%
Plzen 2+ goals
35%
Plzen 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FK Jablonec (draw refunded)
69%
Plzen (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Jablonec at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.05 · 5 matches

Plzen away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Jablonec attack 1.72 + Plzen defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.93

Plzen attack 1.41 + FK Jablonec defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FK Jablonec scores more
54%
level
22%
Plzen scores more
24%

FK Jablonec at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FK Jablonec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Plzen have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Top-of-the-table clash — FK Jablonec 4 vs Plzen 3
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.9 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
FK Jablonec
Balanced
Plzen
Possession-dominant
49%Possession53%
76%Pass accuracy77%
9.7Shots11.2
1.46xGBiggest gap1.81
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
FK JablonecPlzen

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

0
FK Jablonec
3
Draws
7
Plzen
Avg goals: 3.9BTTS: 70%
0–53–31–11–42–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Jablonec
WLDD
Plzen
WLDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FK Jablonec vs Plzen — Match Preview

FK Jablonec face Plzen on October 17, 2026 in this Czech Liga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

FK Jablonec host Plzen at Stadion Strelnice.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.